EconInsight
Trading Rules Monitor

Rule-Based Market Regime

This page answers one question: based on your rule set, what kind of market are we in and how much total exposure should you allow?

Data as of June 3, 2026

Range:

Current Rule Read

Recommended Max Exposure

100%
based on your macro + overlay + technical stack

Trend conditions are supportive. Offense is allowed, but still respect the macro cap.

GREEN LIGHTGreenGreen (3/4)State A
Base Technical Zone
70% - 100%
State A
After Overlay
70% - 100%
Green (3/4)
Macro Hard Cap
100%
Green
Current Phase
Recovery
No rate pressure

Current Anchors

Investment Clock
Recovery
Growth: Rising
Inflation: Falling
US 10Y Rate Pressure
37bp
Pressure Off
Hard Risk Gate
Green
Sahm 1.4 | HY 2.71%
Cap 100%
Technical State
State A
S&P 1m: 4.9%
Nasdaq 1m: 10.6%

Strong trend regime. Right-side offense is supported when macro caps allow it.

Trend Matrix

Close-based moving-average checks use a 1% buffer.

S&P 500
Above 20DMA +1%Above 60DMA +1%Above 200DMA +1%20DMA Rising
1-month change: 4.9%
Nasdaq 100
Above 20DMA +1%Above 60DMA +1%Above 200DMA +1%20DMA Rising
1-month change: 10.6%

Current Reasons

Investment Clock is Recovery.
Leading overlay is Green (3/4).
Hard risk gate is Green (Claims 4w 209k ↑, HY 2.71%).
State A: Strong trend regime. Right-side offense is supported when macro caps allow it.
Rule-based max exposure is 100%.

Leading Overlay Checks

Initial Jobless Claims
Negative
4w 209,000 vs 13w 208,692
Positive when the 4-week average is not above the 13-week average.
Manufacturing New Orders (YoY)
Positive
+2.1%
Positive when Census Bureau manufacturing new orders are growing year-over-year.
Building Permits
Positive
YoY +0.1%
Positive when the latest YoY reading is at or above 0%.
High Yield Spread
Positive
2.71%
Positive when the spread is below 5%.

Preferred Posture

GrowthTechnologyLeadership stocksBroad growth ETFs

Market History vs Rule-Based Exposure

Hover the chart to inspect the contemporaneous rule stack, risk lights, and max exposure. Technical-state moving-average checks use same-day close confirmation with a 1% buffer.

S&P 500Nasdaq 100Max Exposure
Jun 3, 2026Max 100%State AGreen (3/4)Green
Index Snapshot
S&P 500: 7,553.68
Nasdaq 100: 30,571.24
Rule Stack
Clock: Recovery
Technical: State A
Adjusted: State A
Hard Constraints
Macro cap: 100%
HY spread: 2.71%
Sahm: 1.43

Why The Rule Stack Looked Like This

Strong trend regime. Right-side offense is supported when macro caps allow it.

Trend conditions are supportive. Offense is allowed, but still respect the macro cap.

Investment Clock is Recovery.
Leading overlay is Green (3/4).
Hard risk gate is Green (Claims 4w 209k ↑, HY 2.71%).
State A: Strong trend regime. Right-side offense is supported when macro caps allow it.
Rule-based max exposure is 100%.

Overlay Checks On This Date

These four checks decide whether the early-warning overlay was green, yellow, or red.

Initial Jobless Claims
Negative
4w 209,000 vs 13w 208,692
Positive when the 4-week average is not above the 13-week average.
Manufacturing New Orders (YoY)
Positive
+2.1%
Positive when Census Bureau manufacturing new orders are growing year-over-year.
Building Permits
Positive
YoY +0.1%
Positive when the latest YoY reading is at or above 0%.
High Yield Spread
Positive
2.71%
Positive when the spread is below 5%.